Earlier predictions of a comfortable win for Joe Biden at the 3 November election have reversed, increasing the chance of a close result. This could mean a contested election and significant market uncertainty after the vote. Caroline Grady gives her take on the latest election dynamics.
For our academic summary this week Sam van de Schootbrugge reviews a new IMF paper comparing the different datasets on capital flow proxies. It’s a great read.
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(total reading time: 3 mins)
Earlier predictions of a comfortable win for Joe Biden at the 3 November election have reversed, increasing the chance of a close result. This could mean a contested election and significant market uncertainty after the vote. Caroline Grady gives her take on the latest election dynamics.
For our academic summary this week Sam van de Schootbrugge reviews a new IMF paper comparing the different datasets on capital flow proxies. It’s a great read.
Enjoy!
Bilal
Trump Re-election Odds Jump, As Does Chance Of Rising Market Uncertainty (3 min read) Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any hope of implementing Joe Biden’s policy platform – have dropped to 50:50, and the chance of a close and contested election – and with it significant market uncertainty – have jumped.
(Caroline Grady │ 2nd September, 2020)
High-Frequency Capital Flow Proxies Are Good At Predicting BoP Flows (10 min read) Policymakers need timely information on capital flows to inform decisions on monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. Official balance of payments (BoP) data are of little help, given their long release lag. Instead, high-frequency capital flow proxies can serve as early warning indicators.
(Sam van de Schootbrugge │ 2nd September, 2020)
Global COVID-19 Tracker – Spain And France Reach 1st Wave Infection Rates (4 min read) Over the last week, the world registered 1.8mn new COVID-19 cases, a weekly rise of 7%. Overall, 25.4mn cases have now been recorded, with deaths totalling 849,400. There are just twelve Coronavirus-free countries on earth – Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Vanuatu and Tonga (Turkmenistan and North Korea are also on the list).
(Bilal Hafeez, Sam van de Schootbrugge │ 2nd September, 2020)
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