Prime Trade Ideas: How to Position for 2023

We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.

An Update on Our Latest Trade Ideas

We summarise the latest updates on our trade ideas here, with links to the original analysis.

• Bilal continued to advocate the ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. He now has 2023 in sight: timing will prove critical as a likely Fed pivot, China reopening and better European energy outlook feed through into markets.
• John left his ETF biases unchanged. He did, however, consider how clean energy and electric vehicles could fit into your portfolio.
• We turned heavily bearish bitcoinover the next two to four weeks.
• In our latest SGX Asia Currencies Insights update, wefocused on the China reopening. While it is positive for Asia FX, some currencies across the region will outperform. We continue to be bullish on CNH, KRW, TWD and THB but remain neutral INR.
• Meanwhile, in our latest SGX Commodities Insights and China Growth Tracker update, we remained neutral on iron ore.

Bilal’s Asset Allocation Update

Find Bilal’s latest asset allocation biases here.

• 2022 will be remembered for many things. Investors, however, will remember it as the year of the worst ever bond market performance and the first year since the late 1960s that both bonds and equities lost money. Rampant inflation and an aggressive Fed were the triggers, and few markets offered a refuge.
• The anti-fiat system play of cryptocurrencies produced dismal returns. Gold prices fell. The only markets that rose for the year were energy, agricultural commodities, and cash. Our call in May that cash would be king in the year of inflation turned out to be prescient.
• With this backdrop we continue to advocate ‘everything breaks’ portfolio: underweight equities and bonds, neutral commodities and crypto, and overweight cash.
• As we go into 2023, the likely Fed pivot, China reopening, and a managed European energy shortage will create a positive tone. Making a call on these three will therefore be key, especially the Fed pivot. For now, we continue to overweight cash.

John Tierney’s US Equity ETF Biases

Find John’s full list of ETF biases here. Alternatively, they are in the table below.

• John left his ETF biases unchanged. He did, however, consider how clean energy and electric vehicles could fit into your portfolio.

Henry’s European ETF Biases

Henry made this call back in March. The premise still holds, and we review short-term adjustments periodically.

• Long-term overweight renewable energy (FAN, INRG): The EU remains hugely exposed to Russian energy – not just in gas but nearly all fossil fuels. It means that simply replacing the supply of Russian gas energy with other sources may be practically difficult (due to infrastructure) as well as geopolitically unattractive. Longer term, a concerted increase in renewables spend is highly likely.
• We have pared out overweight financial exposure, for now. But, In the long term, we see strategic value in overweighting financials (CB5).

Cryptocurrency Models

Find our latest bitcoin signals here and our latest ethereum signals here.

• We are heavily bearish bitcoinover the next two to four weeks. On-chain/flow signals are heavily while the macro backdrop remains poor for the cryptocurrency.
• We are neutral-bearish ethereumover the next two to four weeks. In short, a poor macro backdrop, alongside the disastrous collapse of the FTX has presented crypto markets with a resilient headwind. Over a longer horizon, we see value in being long ethereum.

Discretionary Macro

Our latest discretionary macro biases in collaboration with SGX can be found here (FX) and here (Commodities and China Growth Tracker) while our latest views on rates in collaboration with TMX can be found here. We also examine investor positioning with CME here.

• In our latest SGX Asia Currencies Insights update, wefocused on the China reopening. While It Is positive for Asia FX, some currencies will outperform. We continue to be bullish on CNH, KRW, TWD and THB but remain neutral INR.
• In our latest SGX Commodities Insights and China Growth Tracker update, we remained neutral on iron ore as bullish sentiment has to battle with potentially choppy and corrective pullbacks.
• In our latest TMX piece, we are bullish Canadian rates (two- and 10-year) and bearish US rates (two- and 10-year). This is because we think the Fed will end up hiking more than the Bank of Canada, an opposing view to the market, while Canadian housing is more vulnerable than US housing.
• In our latest CME FX update, we considered investor positioning in CLP and JPY.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)