Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Bilal Hafeez
In 2022, we outlined our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio, which meant constantly overweighting cash above all else.
Ben Ford
Bilal’s asset allocation will be updated in March. For now, the themes remain: Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its hiking cycle soon.
Ben Ford
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document.
Ben Ford
The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have all hiked in February. Here are our latest views to survive in what follows:
Ben Ford
We are over halfway through January and our trades continue to hold up.
Bilal Hafeez
2023 has started with a positive tone. Most risk markets from equities to crypto are up, and we identify four driving themes:
Ben Ford
Bilal continued to advocate the 'everything breaks' portfolio. He now has 2023 in sight: timing will prove critical as a likely Fed pivot, China reopening and better European energy outlook feed through into markets.
Bilal Hafeez
2022 will be remembered for many things. Investors, however, will remember it as the year of the worst ever bond market performance and the first year since the late 1960s that both bonds and equities lost money.
Ben Ford
John unwound his retail, US infrastructure and European equity index positions. He is now up 2% against the S&P 500.
Ben Ford
John unwound his short semiconductor trade for an oversized profit. He is now considering when to turn long (vs S&P 500).
Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
Ben Ford
John launched a new framework for his US equity ETF biases. The methodology revealed that he is beating the S&P 500. You can follow him here.
Ben Ford
Bilal’s asset allocation remains unchanged: overweight cash, neutral cash and commodities, and underweight equities and bonds.
Bilal Hafeez
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Ben Ford
Our biases in Asia FX have registered strong returns. Now, we are making changes. We closed our bearish KRW position and turned bearish on SGD...
Ben Ford
‘Cash is king’ has become a favourite phrase of Bilal’s. He is yet to let it go – and for good reason. The market is finally catching up with our view that the Federal Reserve must...
Bilal Hafeez
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Ben Ford
John left his US equity ETF biases However, in the process, he has strongly reiterated being underweight equities, homebuilders, and consumer staples, and overweight energy...
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