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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 08-06-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Macro Hive Global COVID-19 Tracker –Brazil Wipes Out Official COVID-19 Data; DM Improves

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  • In the DM world, no country saw big increases in either cases or deaths.
  • In the EM world, Pakistan, South Africa, and Chile all recorded a 5% increase in cases. In Pakistan, more than one in five cases have been positive in the last 10 days and officials say the virus has yet to peak. India, Egypt, Colombia, and Argentina all recorded 4%. On deaths, Chile leads today with a 6% increase, followed by Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa which recorded 5%. Iran had a 1% increase but in absolute terms it is experiencing a new wave, having recorded more than 3500 new infections since last week. Brazil also recorded only a 1% increase, but from now that is not to be trusted as the government decided to stop publishing and delete the official Covid data.

 

  • Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
    • In DM, Sweden reconfirms its new waver status. We also see Greece and Portugal potentially inching towards the new wave. On a more positive note, we do not see a peak wave country nor a clear post-peak contender, suggesting countries are indeed maintaining their declining momentum.
    • In EM, the situation is in reverse with most countries being in the peak wave quadrant. The Philippines and Iran are new wavers. While there is no contender for the post-peak wave, we have Turkey, Hungary and several Asian nations topping up the declining quadrant.

 

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Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

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