- In the DM world, we see Sweden leading with a 2% increase in cases, most probably as a result of the recent outbreak in the northern part of the country which triggered new lockdown measures. Next, we have US with a 1% increase, the worst numbers being in Florida, Texas, and Arizona given record case surges, averaging 2600 per day, earlier this week. Greece also saw a sudden jump of 55 cases, raising its total infections to 3200 and its death toll to 187. On deaths, Sweden is also leading with a 2% increase. It is followed by US, Austria, and Greece with 1%. Germany, which saw increases of less than 0.5% in both cases or deaths, recently decided to ban all major events until at least the end of October.
- In the EM world, we have Chile leading today with a 20% increase, a combination of both numerous new cases but also some previous under-reporting. This led authorities to impose a lockdown on Santiago in which residents are allowed to leave homes only twice a week. South Africa reported a 5% increase, while Saudi Arabia, Colombia, and Argentina are all at 4%. The latter country sees its president and other politicians under voluntarily quarantine amid COVID infection fears. More broadly, there is also potential for air travel disruption as Latam’s largest airline indefinitely suspended its Argentinian operations, blaming authorities very tough travel bans. On deaths, we have India leading today with a 20% increase, a combination of both numerous new deaths but also some under-reported deaths in Delhi and Maharashtra. Next in line, we see Chile with 7%, as well as Nigeria with 5%. The latter country not only experiences a peak state of the pandemics but also suffers from the recent explosion of African swine fever, leading to thousands of hundreds of pigs being culled.
- In the last 7 days DM has seen a 25% aggregate increase in cases per capita, versus 160% in EM (with Latam a major contributor). On deaths, the equivalent aggregate numbers are a 1.5% drop for DM and an 18% increase for EM. Recent days, especially yesterday, brought significant increases for both DM and EM cases.
- Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
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- In DM, Sweden further deteriorates and counts as a peak wave country from the perspective of both levels and changes. US, Australia, Portugal, and Greece reconfirm their new wave status, with Japan moving towards there as well. Austria is our post-peak contender. Ireland, Canada, Finland, Italy, and Denmark still retain their declining wave status largely unchanged.
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- In EM, apart from India’s large death toll (not in chart, but explained above) and Turkey’s deterioration, there are no significant changes. China’s cases keep increasing. Israel, Poland, and Iran are also in a weak position due to cases increases. Russia is a peak waver along with the usual cluster formed by Latam and some Asian and African countries. The countries to be found in a rather better position are Thailand, Malaysia, Czech Republic, and Hungary.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
