- In the DM world, we see US experiencing a new record of daily case increases. Thursday’s numbers saw a 1.7% increase which translates into 40,553 new cases. Southern and Western states continued to worsen and the Governors of Texas, Florida, Arizona and New Mexico announced reopening plans are being put on hold. The news is more positive in New York, where COVID hospitalizations dipped below 1000 for the first time since March. In terms of estimates, latest numbers from Center for Disease Control (CDC) point to the number of cases being ten times the official numbers. Another study, from the University of Washington, estimates the number of deaths reaching somewhere between 146,000 and 180,000 by October. The former prediction results from the scenario in which 95% of Americans wear masks, while the latter was revised downwards from an initial 201,000 estimate.
Away from the US, we have the UK with a 0.4% increase. Regional authorities confirmed a new outbreak at a meat processing site in West Yorkshire, adding to similar incidents in three other food factories. The British Medical Association (BMA) presented guidelines for this summer’s tourist season while health secretary Matt Hancock has warned about potential closures of beaches if social distancing is ignored. Also, a new study from City, University London predicts cases could drop to zero in late July or early August.
In Japan we see a 0.5% daily increase which translates into 92 new cases. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike says the medical system is currently coping well, even though the city is at a one-and-a-half-month high. Many cases are linked to workplaces and nightclubs. In terms of deaths, Tokyo recorded around one third of the national total.
In Australia, renewed panic has erupted given fears over a second wave triggering supermarkets to reintroduce rationing. PM Scott Morrison signalled borders might be closed until mid-2021, although New Zealand and the Pacific Islands may be exempt from those rules.
In EMEA, which overall saw a 15% weekly increase in cases per capita, the WHO recently pointed to Germany, Spain, Israel, and Poland as the countries which handled the second wave well. On the other hand, Sweden, Ukraine, Armenia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, and Kosovo were regarded as particularly weak throughout COVID.
- In EM, we have Argentina leading today with a 5.6% case increase, which translates into 2600 new cases. Brazil saw 40,000 new cases, which is not even a record. India sees a 3.7% increase, or a new record of 17,000 new cases. Indian Railways postponed the planned June 30 resumption of regular train services until August 12. Domestic flight have resumed but the government has still to decide on restarting international travel. China reported significant declines and overnight saw only 13 new cases.
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Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
