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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 27-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker – Testing In Danger: Global Shortage Of Reagents

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  • In the DM world, the UK and Sweden had a 2% increase in cases. Others barely saw any increases. On deaths, Sweden also saw a 2% increase as well as Japan. Spain saw a 1% increase after yesterday’s surprising drop of 7% – an artefact of Monday’s revised numbers on Covid related deaths.
  • The EM world sees larger changes. In terms of cases, increases are smaller than usual and only Latam economies recorded 5% increases. All other countries recorded values under 4%. On deaths, Nigeria and Mexico recorded 7% increases. The leader is South Africa which yesterday saw a 9% increase. The country is one of the most affected by the global lack of reagents for testing. There is, however, progress in this area as University of Warwick researchers recently announced the development of some DIY reagents, the effectiveness of which was confirmed by UK hospital laboratories.
  • Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:

○ In DM, Sweden and Canada remain the only countries that stand out from large numbers in both levels and percentage changes. Almost all other countries are in the declining wave quadrant.

○ In EM, we still have major Latam, Asian, and African economies in the peak wave. More than half of the countries we track are in this position. In terms of a new wave, Iran and Malaysia show signs from the perspective of both levels and percentage changes.

 

Figure 1: Europe – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 2: Americas – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 3: Asia – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 4: EMEA – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)

 

 

Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)