Global COVID-19 Tracker – Religious Gatherings Leave Infection Risks Ahead
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In the DM world, we see Sweden leading today with a 5.2% increase. The US follows with a 1.4% increase, spread across 29 states and even in those circumstances most local officials still push for lifting restrictions. Denmark saw a 1% increase, catching the country roughly midpoint between its stage 3 and stage 4 easing of restrictions. While they currently have cafes, museums, libraries, and non-spectator sports open, current plans are to allow nightclubs and gyms to open in August. On deaths, we have Norway leading today with 1.6%. This happens despite one of the strictest restrictions imposed on citizens, who need to quarantine for 10 days and also lose travel insurance if they travel anywhere other than Denmark, Finland, or Iceland. Sweden is also close registering a 1.4% increase. The country registered disastrous results for those aged over 80’, with the age group accounting for more than 8% of Sweden’s fatalities.
In the EM world, we have Colombia leading today with an 8.4% increase. Authorities and the President were criticised for allowing a tax-free shopping day on the 19th of June and we will monitor whether this leads to further cases there. Argentina saw a 5% increase, South Africa and India recorded 4.4% and 3.6% respectively. The former yesterday surpassed the 100k mark in confirmed cases, while the latter allowed the Rath Yatra religious festival to go forward, despite the Supreme Court previously ruling against the Hindu celebration. Saudi Arabia recorded 2.2% and recently decided to allow only around 1000 domestic pilgrims at this year’s Hajj (this will mark the first year in modern times when Muslims from abroad are not permitted to attend). On deaths, Colombia also leads with an 8.5% increase, which translated into 73 new deaths. It is followed by Egypt with 3.9%. Amnesty International called on the government to stop the harassment and intimidation of front line healthcare workers in Egypt who complained about dangerous work conditions.
Looking at aggregate levels, apart from Latam’s increases, we also see a 49% weekly increase in Asian cases, compared to a slight drop of 3% in EMEA. On deaths, the equivalent numbers are a 53% increase for Asia and a 16% drop for EMEA.
Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
In DM, Sweden and US lead on new waves, with Australia coming next, surpassing Portugal. Despite recent increases, Norway still keeps its post-peak status and, along with Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, forms the group of the best positioned countries according to our metrics.
In EM, we see China and Israel keeping their new wave status. Hong Kong also surged while Czech Republic saw cases increase for the second day in a row. The peak wave cluster of Latam, EMEA and some Asian countries remains unchanged. with Iran and Russia close behind. Best positioned countries remain Hungary, Poland, Malaysia, Thailand, and UAE
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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