Global COVID-19 Tracker – Potential 2nd Waves / Latam Departs From Peak
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In the DM world, no country recorded increases larger than 1% in either cases or deaths. Most of them were at zero. It’s perhaps a scale issue, but the data doesn’t seem to incorporate the increases from recent days yet. Big spikes were seen in multiple US states, including Florida and Texas, while Trump’s campaign rally is still due to take place in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in Beijing there was a recent spike of 36 new locally-transmitted cases.
In the EM world, we have Pakistan leading today with a 9% increase in cases, followed by South Africa which reported 7%. All other countries stayed at 4% or below. In the last two weeks, Pakistan saw a sharp increase in cases and this trend is currently expected to carry on through summer. India has also seen cases spike and recently started to convert train carriages to create an additional 8000 beds. On deaths, Pakistan and Chile are in pole position today with a 7% increase, followed by Egypt with 6%. All other countries stayed at 4% or below. COVID deaths in Latam have started to ease back from the peak.
The current DM share of cases & deaths (per capita) over their all-time totals (per capita) are 0.37% and 0.08%. The equivalent figures for EM stand at 2.25% and 2.34%.
Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
In DM, Sweden and the US currently at the top of the new wave quadrant. But there is a possibility of others joining, including Australia, Japan, Portugal, and Greece. The countries which as of now appear least exposed to a new wave are New Zealand, Norway, and Italy.
In EM, the situation remains polarized. There are obvious signs of a new wave in China, Israel, Turkey, Poland, and the UAE. The peak wave cluster of Latam, African, and some Asian countries continues, although latest signals show the former’s intensity starting to decline. The countries that are currently least exposed to a second wave are Malaysia, Hungary, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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