Global COVID-19 Tracker – Latest Restrictions In US And UK / EU Decides On Travel
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In the DM world, US recorded a 1.6% increase in cases with 39,591 new cases. It marks the seventh consecutive day of more than 34k new cases.
In the last seven days, the US states with the largest increases were Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, Arizona, and Nevada. In Texas, all bars and dining establishments obtaining the majority of revenues from alcohol have been closed. Restaurants can stay open for dine-in service but only at 50% capacity. California applied similar measures in 15 of its counties, suggesting a more localized approach, while Florida closed down its beaches. On the flipside, the states with the largest decreases in cases were Delaware, Rhode Island, DC, Connecticut, and Maryland.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, a US national face mask mandate could help reduce the daily growth of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6%. This could potentially ‘substitute for upcoming lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP’.
US deaths continue to evolve at a much slower pace than cases at 0.3%. The main reasons are 1) COVID moving to younger and more resilient people, 2) earlier diagnosis and better management, 3) the survival mechanism of the virus causing it to become milder in its attempt to adapt to the human hosts.
Away from the US, the UK recorded a 0.3% case increase with 830 new cases. A Leicester lockdown has been confirmed, with the boundaries of localised restrictions being published ahead of the law changes that will serve to enforce them. Significant public spending was also officially announced. PM Boris Johnson said it would include schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. The plan also aims to focus on people whose “old jobs” might not be there anymore.
EU just announced the 14 countries whose citizens are permitted travelling into the bloc from 1 July. The US, China, and Brazil did not make the cut. Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Morocco have been approved and the list will be finalised today.
Canada reported a 0.6% increase, its biggest jump in the last 22 days. Almost half of the cases are linked to an outbreak among temporary workers in southern Ontario.
Sweden is today’s leader in terms of case growth with 3.9%. At 2530 new cases it’s the country’s 2nd largest daily increase. Despite ongoing increases since early April Sweden has a steady decline in cases needing intensive care. WHO also amended its initial assessments, changing the status of Sweden to “stable” and linking the number of cases to increased testing.
In EM, South Africa has the highest daily growth in cases, at 4.4%. Western Cape remains the worst affected region, recording so far 42% of the national cases and 71% of the deaths. Argentina and Colombia are next in line with 3.9% and 3.6%. Mexico and Brazil saw 1.8% increases, while Chile recorded 1.5%. A recent study by Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in partnership with University of Washington projected Latam and the Caribbean could see nearly 388,300 COVID deaths by October.
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Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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