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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 28-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker – EMs Still At The Peak Of The Battle

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  • In the DM world, we have Sweden with a 2% increase in cases while other countries saw minimal increases. On deaths, New Zealand saw a 5% increase, but that reflects just one death which pushed the total to just 22 fatalities. New Zealand also discharged its last coronavirus patient from hospital yesterday and has recorded no new cases in the last five days. The US, Canada, and Sweden recorded a 2% increase in deaths while elsewhere deaths barely increased.
  • In EM, South Africa leads on cases with a 7% increase, reaching a total of 24,300. This makes it the most affected country on the African continent. It is followed by Egypt which saw a 5% increase and has reached 18,800 cases. The 5% increase is also shared with Nigeria, almost all Latam economies, and India. On deaths, Mexico leads today with a 6% increase and yesterday was the first time the country recorded more than 500 deaths in a single day. It is followed by South Africa at 5%, while India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and Chile recorded 4%.
  • Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:

○ In DM, all countries are now in either post-peak or declining wave. Sweden and Canada currently remain the most affected based on our metrics.

○ In EM, Latam countries remain in the peak wave, along with some EMEA countries plus South Africa. Iran continues its new wave journey while Poland shows signs it may head there as well. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are top in the declining wave.


Figure 1: Europe – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)



Figure 2: Americas – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)



Figure 3: Asia – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)



Figure 4: EMEA – COVID Daily Cases (Smoothed)



Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)



Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats



Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats




Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.


Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)