Global COVID-19 Tracker – DM Daily Deaths Increase / Brazil And India Particularly Hit
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In the DM world, we see Sweden leading with a 2% increase in cases, followed by US and Portugal with 1%. Especially in US, we have new cases nearly doubling in Alabama and South Carolina, while large increases were also seen in Arkansas, Arizona, and Louisiana. Meanwhile, Japan recently experienced outbreaks of more than 45 cases per day in Tokyo, while Australia recorded double digit cases for four consecutive days. New Zealand sees two new externally transmitted cases after having initially eliminated the virus. On deaths, we see daily increases in US, Sweden, UK, Switzerland, and Canada.
In the EM world, we have Pakistan leading in daily case increases, registering 7%. It is followed by South Africa, Argentina, and Brazil with 4%. The latter country recorded yesterday 35,000 new cases, consolidating its position as 2nd worst hit country after US. Elsewhere in Latam, we note a sudden stop in new daily cases in Colombia, which we will keep under close observation. Next in line, with 3% we have India, which consolidates as the 4th worst hit country and Chile, which extended its “state of catastrophe” by 90 days. On deaths, Pakistan leads as well with 9%. It is followed by Nigeria with 7% and Egypt with 6%. India comes next with 4%, having recorded 2000 deaths in the last 24 hours.
Giving more perspective on the recent changes, in the last 7 days DM has seen a 5% aggregate increase in cases per capita, versus 20% in EM. On deaths, the equivalent aggregate numbers are a 12% drop for DM and an 18% increase for EM.
Looking at which countries are at peak waves, we find the following:
In DM, Sweden remains the most affected from the perspective of levels and has also deteriorated on daily changes. We also see Australia, Japan, US, and Portugal either consolidating or inching towards the new wave quadrant. Among the countries which have maintained their declining wave positions largely untouched, we see Ireland, Canada, Finland and, partially, Italy.
In EM, there are large shifts with China’s figures jumping from the perspective of both levels and daily changes. Israel and Poland are also showing strong sign of case increases. The peak stages of the pandemic remain in most of Latam and some parts of Asia (Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia) and Africa (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria). The countries to be found in a rather better position are Thailand, Malaysia, HK, and Hungary.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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