Asia | China | Emerging Markets | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates
The idea that China must cut rates seems like a non-starter. It was the only major economy to clock positive GDP growth last year.
But examining what drove the country’s recovery reveals a more worrying picture.
Even by the year’s final quarter, China’s economy was still massively unbalanced. Financial services and real estate took a historically large share of nominal GDP growth, as both benefited from the looser credit environment earlier in the year.
In contrast, business services and consumer-facing industries – which derived fewer benefits from China’s looser monetary policy stance – accounted for a lower share of GDP growth than in previous years.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.