Introduction
Cases are ballooning again in the US. But has the country performed worse during the pandemic compared with other significantly affected countries? In this note, I present graphically the key COVID indicators across the US, UK and EU4 (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Cases
The US has registered 1.2mn new cases last week, a 12% WoW rise. Other than in Germany, where cases rose 8% WoW, new infections have started to fall across the UK and EU4 (Chart 1).
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Summary
- US COVID cases are rising quickly and could continue to rise for at least another two weeks.
- The latest research estimates that the US, France and Spain are halfway to herd immunity.
- US ICU occupancy is nearing capacity, and rates of new admissions are increasing.
Introduction
Cases are ballooning again in the US. But has the country performed worse during the pandemic compared with other significantly affected countries? In this note, I present graphically the key COVID indicators across the US, UK and EU4 (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Cases
The US has registered 1.2mn new cases last week, a 12% WoW rise. Other than in Germany, where cases rose 8% WoW, new infections have started to fall across the UK and EU4 (Chart 1).
The recent surge means the US is registering over 50 cases per 100,000 population for the first time during the pandemic. Only France and Italy have recorded similar population-adjusted figures. The rise from trough to peak during the most recent wave across the EU4 and UK is on average 98 days. Based on this estimate, cases in the US could continue to rise for another two and a half weeks, reaching a daily figure of 78 cases per 100,000 population by mid-December (250,000 a day).
On a population-adjusted scale, the US has the highest number of recorded infections (Chart 2). In total, approximately 4% of the US population has officially had COVID-19. According to a recent academic study, this could mean as many as 25% have had the virus – that’s just 18% less than the estimated amount required for herd immunity.
Excess Deaths
Official statistics show that, up until 4 October, an estimated 332,000 more US deaths have occurred in 2020 than the 2015-2019 average. Based on recent reported deaths, this is now around 360,000 and equivalent to 109 deaths per 100,000 (Chart 3). Italy and Spain are the only two countries in the sample to have a higher population-adjusted number of excess deaths.
As with almost all countries, excess deaths in the US rose most significantly during the first wave. However, unlike the EU4 and UK, excess deaths rose sharply all the way up until August. The recent spike in infections has increased excess deaths in recent weeks, especially in France.
Intensive/Critical Care Capacity
The US is already at a similar level of ICU occupation to the first wave (Chart 4). Italy and Germany are in an equally difficult situation, while the UK and France appear to be less affected this time around. Crucially, WoW changes in ICU occupancy are rising in the US, while they are declining in the EU4 and UK.
In population-adjusted terms, the US currently has fewer individuals in ICUs (4 per 100,000) than France (7), Italy (6) and Spain (7). The UK figure is 2 per 200,000, but this is for those on ventilators. If cases rise for the same amount of time as the average across the EU4 and UK, the US ICU figure will reach 6 per 100,00.
Bottom Line
While cases across the EU4 and UK appear to be levelling off, the US may be set for at least another two weeks of daily increases. This means that the already-high percentage of people in the US who have had the virus will grow closer to the point of herd immunity.
Despite a decline in cases, ICU occupancy and excess deaths are still rising (although at a slowing pace) among the EU4 and UK. For the US, excess deaths are already at levels similar to the worst-affected EU countries. Also, ICU occupancy is most certainly going to extend beyond April levels.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)