By Phil Suttle 26-09-2019

US Set for Japanification?

(4 min read)
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The path of US interest rates has reversed sharply this year, leading to legitimate concern over whether the US is destined for Japanification. Japanese policy rates peaked at 8.25% during a financial bubble that burst in 1989 and were then steadily trimmed until a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was finally introduced in 1999 (Chart 1). The path of US rates has lagged by 16 years with a bubble peak in 2006, but otherwise looks similar. And T US 10-year yields have followed an even closer (lagged) path to Japanese yields than has been the case for policy rates (Chart 2). If the post-bubble Japan analogue holds for US bonds, then sub-2% yields could persist for another 15-20 years...

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