US Election – 11 Days To Go
- By Caroline Grady
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- 2 min read
The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that meant microphones were partially muted to avoid interruptions. However, there were no developments likely to materially alter recent polling. Joe Biden remains around 10 points ahead on national polls (52 vs 41), leaving a big gap for Donald Trump to make up in the final 11 days.
But Biden’s lead is narrower in battleground states such as Pennsylvania (5 points) and Florida (2 points). And national polls could yet narrow from here. While any new revelations from either side seem unlikely at this stage, last minute disruptions cannot entirely be ruled out. Moreover, COVID will continue to have an impact. The US daily case count is rising again, with the seven-day average count moving steadily higher during the past month and yesterday’s roughly 63,400 new cases close to recent highs. The focus on COVID at the start of Thursday’s debate hindered Trump’s case for re-election.
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The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that meant microphones were partially muted to avoid interruptions. However, there were no developments likely to materially alter recent polling. Joe Biden remains around 10 points ahead on national polls (52 vs 41), leaving a big gap for Donald Trump to make up in the final 11 days.
But Biden’s lead is narrower in battleground states such as Pennsylvania (5 points) and Florida (2 points). And national polls could yet narrow from here. While any new revelations from either side seem unlikely at this stage, last minute disruptions cannot entirely be ruled out. Moreover, COVID will continue to have an impact. The US daily case count is rising again, with the seven-day average count moving steadily higher during the past month and yesterday’s roughly 63,400 new cases close to recent highs. The focus on COVID at the start of Thursday’s debate hindered Trump’s case for re-election.
That around 47-50mn Americans have already voted – a much larger number than this stage in the 2016 election – stole some of the importance from Thursday’s debate. We have also pointed to the much lower share of undecideds than in 2016. But the extent of ‘shy’ Trump voters remains an unclear and could mean that the incumbent’s support is higher than polls suggest.
And whether or not the Democrats win the Senate will, of course, make a significant difference to the policy outlook.
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Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)