COVID | Credit | Economics & Growth | Equities | Monetary Policy & Inflation
Bad news related to the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus, COVID19, is unlikely to be fully priced in. Yet over the next few months, I still expect TINA (There Is No Alternative) to remain the prevailing market regime.
Equity Markets Have so Far Shrugged off Coronavirus Concerns
Equity markets’ resiliency to COVID19 could reflect expectations of early containment of the epidemic or of limited impact. But the former, at least, appears unlikely. COVID19 is spreading faster than either SARS or the Swine Flu (Chart 1). In addition, there are doubts on the numbers reported by China, and contagion chains without a direct link to China have already appeared – for instance in Singapore. So at this stage, a global pandemic seems more likely than not.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.