After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There is, however, plenty of Fedspeak with Chair Powell and others scheduled throughout the week. Tuesday’s scheduled speech by BoE Governor Bailey will also be watched closely after last week’s confirmation that negative rates are under consideration. Central banks in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland are all expected to leave rates unchanged.
Several EM central banks hold policy meetings this week. No change is expected to the loan prime rate in China on Monday, while Czech Republic and Thailand are also expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday. Thursday brings rate meetings in Mexico and Turkey. With inflation running above target, Banxico are expected to reduce the pace of easing with consensus expecting a 25bps cut to 4.25%. A pause in the easing cycle cannot, however, be ruled out. For the CBRT, the consensus is for rates on hold at 8.25%, but given the fresh record-low for the lira last week several economists are calling for a rate hike this week.
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