Easter Sunday arrives this weekend, so we take a very light-hearted look at seasonal trading. For those lucky enough to escape work over the holidays, the Friday feeling will have come a day early this week – and perhaps you left the office early, too. But if history prevails, this would have been unwise for investors!
Between 1929 and 2021, the S&P 500 has returned a loss on only 18 of the final trading days before the Easter weekend! That is, over 80% of the time, had you invested for the final trading day before Easter, you would not have lost on your investment. In fact, Easter has the most attractive investment return profile of the holidays we consider over this timeframe (Chart 1).
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
