Meet Matthew Tibble

Matthew Tibble

Matthew Tibble is Commissioning Editor at Macro Hive. He has worked as an editorial consultant and freelance editor for companies such as RiskThinking.AI, JDI Research, and FutureScape248. He holds a PhD in English Literature and formerly held a competitive research fellowship at the University of London.

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Recent Articles

  1. Charts of the Week: Rising R-Star, ‘Last-Mile’ Disinflation, and a 2024 Oil Supply Deficit

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary The Fed has r-star around 0.5% in real terms, but markets are pricing it around 2%. We think this could be a return to the pre-GFC ‘normal’. US disinflation could be entering its ‘last mile’ phase, implying slower price increases ahead. Asian trade data corroborates the recent pick-up in global manufacturing, but a lack […]

  2. Charts of the Week: Oil Cuts at Risk, Extreme-Low VIX, and an EZ Inflation Bounce-Back

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary Saudi Arabia’s oil production market share is at multi-decade lows, putting their ‘lollipop’ cuts at risk of an unwind. The VIX is at a post-Covid low and supporting credit. EZ inflation is returning to the ECB’s forecasted path following the November miss. US yields are strongly correlated with the dollar, and we think yields […]

  3. Charts of the Week: Bearish JPY, Short CNH, and Fading the UK Inflation Beat

    Matthew Tibble

    Summary Two factors support our bullish USD/JPY call: weak Q1 seasonals for JPY, and Japan’s cyclical downturn. China faces a supply-demand imbalance preventing inflation from returning to positive territory. UK inflation remains below BoE forecasts despite the recent beat. Equities are trading at historically high P/E valuations, which could depress returns in 2024. Market Implications […]

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