Europe | Politics & Geopolitics
French Election – Is the Market Too Complacent of a Le Pen Presidency?
- By Henry Occleston
- 3 min read
French presidential elections are often full of surprises. Take Emmanuel Macron’s win in 2017, in which he had been polling in third place just five months before the first round. Or consider 2002, when Jean-Marine Le Pen jumped 4ppt at the last minute to take second place from Lionel Jospin.
So could Le Pen clinch the presidency? The media is beginning to take note. But if there really is a risk, the market looks complacent. The 10Y OAT/Bund spread (a measure of France-specific risk) has jumped to 55bps, its highest level since the 2020 crash. This might sound a lot, but in 2017, it blew out to 80bps, even while Le Pen trailed 20-30ppts in second-round polling.
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