Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
Henry Occleston
Summary It was another reduced labour market release (full labour force survey data will be corrected and updated in January hopefully). But what we did get was dovish. Total weekly wage growth dropped 0.8ppt (from an upwardly revised +8.0% YoY) to +7.2%. Meanwhile, regular pay dropped 0.5ppt from an upwardly revised +7.8% in September. Most […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The OBR downgraded real growth across the forecast horizon but upgraded nominal growth forecasts on the back of higher inflation ahead. Ahead of what could well be an election year in 2024, the UK Chancellor’s Autumn Statement provided a 2ppt cut to national insurance contributions. We expect next March’s budget to provide further backing […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25%, likely with fewer voters backing a hike than at the last meeting (when it was 5:4 in favour of a pause). The MPR forecasts are likely to be far more dovish than in August. Higher unemployment and lower expectations of wage growth will […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB will hold deposit rate steady at 4.0%, this week. Following recent data, upside risks to terminal rate have softened. But, the ECB will push back on near-term cuts and leave the door open to more hikes. Bank lending survey adds to the dovish sentiment, with tightening credit standards and declining […]
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