Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE voted (almost unanimously) not to cut in September and explicitly guided a ‘gradual approach’ to easing. However, we think recent data continues to suggest dovishness. Meanwhile, Greene and Mann (hawks) show increasing concern with consumer weakness. We are less optimistic than both on the outlook for the UK consumer based on the […]
Henry Occleston
Summary A September cut may require a continued undershoot in headline and services inflation (our expectation) and signs of further labour market easing (less certain). The September meeting will also see a decision on QT for the year ahead. Given the maturity profile, the risk is skewed towards slower active sales. This would present more […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The market is fully pricing a 25bp cut in September. However, recent data suggests the ECB will need to revise their forecasts more hawkishly at the September meeting. This, and the amount of incoming data, elevates the risk of the ECB pausing in September. We therefore see good value in fading the 25bp cut […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp, in line with economist consensus. We had been low conviction on the decision but have long been dovish on the BoE outlook and positioned accordingly. The vote was tight, 5:4 in favour of cutting. As expected, forecasts and comments were hawkish (decision ‘finely balanced’, ‘upside risks to outlook’). However, the […]
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.