Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Europe | Rates
Henry Occleston, Caroline Grady
Summary The ECB is widely expected to cut its depo rate by another 25bps on Thursday. Below-target inflation and increasing signs of economic, and in particular labour market, weakness are why. But we expect a cautious tone given inflation is set to rise again in Q4, risks over January repricing remain, and Q2 employment growth […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The ECB seems almost certain to cut 25bp at its 17 October meeting. Post-NFP, the market has pared expectations of cuts over the next year, but it is still pricing four 25bp cuts in as many meetings. While September inflation took it below ECB forecasts, we are cautious that we may be seeing a […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE voted (almost unanimously) not to cut in September and explicitly guided a ‘gradual approach’ to easing. However, we think recent data continues to suggest dovishness. Meanwhile, Greene and Mann (hawks) show increasing concern with consumer weakness. We are less optimistic than both on the outlook for the UK consumer based on the […]
Henry Occleston
Summary A September cut may require a continued undershoot in headline and services inflation (our expectation) and signs of further labour market easing (less certain). The September meeting will also see a decision on QT for the year ahead. Given the maturity profile, the risk is skewed towards slower active sales. This would present more […]
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