Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
Henry Occleston
The ECB policy meeting is on Thursday. I expect them to hike 50bp and add to the recent hawkish shift with a far higher near-term core inflation outlook.
Henry Occleston
UK January ONS and February HMRC labour market data showed an upside surprise to employment growth, which allowed unemployment to remain stable, slightly to the downside on February MPR expectations, while the pattern of wage growth was more dovish, with signs of sharply easing private regular pay growth.
Henry Occleston
I have been dovish on the Bank of England (BoE) for a long time. Since last December, my base case has been for a pause at 4%. This remains in play unless next week’s data or Spring Budget provides a hawkish surprise.
Henry Occleston
This is our summary of recent comments from BoE MPC members, and an overview of the timely data we are looking at, to determine the path ahead for policy.