Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Economics & Growth | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates | UK
Henry Occleston
We expect the BoE will hike by 25bp to 5.5% and signal that they are ready to pause thereafter. Recent data and the tone of policymakers have set the groundworks for such an outturn.
Henry Occleston
The ECB’s decision to hike is based on three factors: Whether core inflation (and importantly wage-intensive services inflation) is trending towards target.
Henry Occleston
As we had expected, July UK headline and core inflation beat expectations, driven by rises in rent prices. The BoE should not take this hawkishly. It is roughly in line with their estimates, and they are focused on the details.
Henry Occleston
The market may want to focus on the jump in wage growth to +8.2% YoY in June, but the details are far less hawkish. Public sector pay growth drove the jump in wages. This is less important to the BoE as it does not present a cost pressure to firms.
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