Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Economics & Growth | Europe | Rates | Trade Idea
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB will cut 25bp this week, in line with consensus. For now, tariffs are dominating all else. In our view, the hawks are overly sanguine about inflation returning sustainably to target. However, hawkishness may not gain traction near-term given tariff fears and suppressed energy prices. The labour market continues to tighten […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE’s March meeting aligned with our expectation, albeit with less dovish voting. We read little into this. The bar is high for data to prevent quarterly cuts. However, by August, we expect fiscal tightening, labour market loosening and soft core services inflation will push the BoE to accelerate cuts. February inflation will struggle […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE to leave the bank rate unchanged at 4.5%, with Dhingra, Taylor and Mann voting for another cut. We would be unsurprised if Mann backed another 50bp cut: our BoE LLM sentiment index supports her fear that transmission to financial conditions has weakened. The minutes will indicate whether this view has […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp, as expected. MPR forecasts were bearish, and comments still indicate more cuts ahead. I read little into the two 50bp votes. Upward revisions to MPR near-term inflation forecasts exceeded our expectations, with smaller impact from one-offs than we anticipate. Despite labour market loosening, medium-term inflation is below target but still […]
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