Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump
(3 min read)
Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic National Convention provided no new insights into the likely outcome of the election. Instead, the perceived handling of the virus, the extent of the economic recovery and attitudes on racial inequality will be the deciding factors. President Trump’s approval ratings are already up from the June lows, and, since the economy is the one area where Trump consistently outpolls Joe Biden, a continued resumption of activity and sharp bounce back in the economy will support his re-election bid. Biden’s recent statement that he would ‘shut down’ the US economy if required to curb further spread of COVID-19 is something Trump will likely use against him.
The four-day Democratic convention succeeded in bringing in $70m in fundraising, coming on the heels of the $48m in the two days following Biden’s announcement of Kamala Harris as his VP pick the week before. More generally, the party put on a united front in support of Biden, unlike the case in 2016, and they also received endorsements from more than 20 Republican senators.
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