By Caroline Grady 26-08-2020
In: hive-exclusives | US

Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

(3 min read)
Resize text:

Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic National Convention provided no new insights into the likely outcome of the election. Instead, the perceived handling of the virus, the extent of the economic recovery and attitudes on racial inequality will be the deciding factors. President Trump’s approval ratings are already up from the June lows, and, since the economy is the one area where Trump consistently outpolls Joe Biden, a continued resumption of activity and sharp bounce back in the economy will support his re-election bid. Biden’s recent statement that he would ‘shut down’ the US economy if required to curb further spread of COVID-19 is something Trump will likely use against him.

The four-day Democratic convention succeeded in bringing in $70m in fundraising, coming on the heels of the $48m in the two days following Biden’s announcement of Kamala Harris as his VP pick the week before. More generally, the party put on a united front in support of Biden, unlike the case in 2016, and they also received endorsements from more than 20 Republican senators.


£39/month thereafter

For access to our Slack Chat Room, where we discuss all things markets with our researchers and subscribers



Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams (4 min read)

By Sam van de Schootbrugge | Feb 10, 2021
Start-up success hinges on many factors, but most would agree that the skills and experience of the founder and initial founding...

Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs? (3 min read)

By John Tierney | Feb 08, 2021
The headline January labour market report was another downer – private payrolls rose a scant 6,000 versus the consensus...

Where Can you Get Higher Bond Yields?

By Caroline Grady | Dec 04, 2020
US yields are rising. The combination of growing optimism over a global recovery given vaccine progress, and the possibility of a US...

Want To Join Our Community Of Leading Investors And Researchers In Our Slack Chat Room?