
Bitcoin & Crypto | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Bitcoin & Crypto | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Yesterday, the US economy was in the spotlight as initial jobless claims dropped from 223k to 204k, according to data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), demonstrating continued resilience in the labour market and dispelling any hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot.
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Yesterday, the US economy was in the spotlight as initial jobless claims dropped from 223k to 204k, according to data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), demonstrating continued resilience in the labour market and dispelling any hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot. Additionally, the December FOMC meeting minutes were hawkish, recognising upside risks to growth and explicitly stating that the Fed will not cut rates in 2023 for the first time. Bitcoin (-0.13%) and ethereum (-0.19%) touched lower.
In terms of future rate hikes, Dominique believes the market is underestimating upside growth, inflation risk, and Fed tightening. She continues to expect a 50bp hike at the February FOMC meeting.
Today, crypto markets are focused on the US jobs data. Bitcoin had dipped in the hours prior to today’s NFP release, but it has since resumed an uptrend after the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and as the US dollar weakened. The jobs data also showed wages grew slower than expected. Additionally, the moves up in bitcoin have been supported by the ISM Services PMI plummeting (49.6%), suggesting the services industry contracted in December.
As for the performance of our crypto indices, they are all in the green. Our Smart Contract Index up the most (+8% WoW). All other indices are up between 1% and 4%. Outperformance of the Smart Contract Index is largely due to Solana (SOL) rallying 40% WoW. Solana (SOL) appears to be rallying due to momentum around a Solana based meme coin, Bonk (a Shiba Inu themed token), which has surged over 2000% WoW. Meme coins are notoriously volatile.
Our Smart Contract (+84%), Metaverse (+82%), and Privacy (+82%) indices are most correlated to bitcoin, while our DeFi Index is least correlated to bitcoin (+80%; Chart 3).
On macro markets, bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 (+22%) and the NASDAQ (+29%) has returned to positive. Bitcoin’s correlation to the two equity indices turned negative on 10 November after Binance pulled out of a potential acquisition of FTX which sent bitcoin to multi-year lows. Meanwhile, its correlation to gold (+24%) and Oil (+21%) is also positive. Bitcoin is currently only negatively correlated to 10Y yields (-54%).
Here are the indices in more detail:
Privacy Coins: coins that obscure transactions on the blockchain to maintain the anonymity of its users and their activity. The constituents of this index are Monero (XMR), Zcash (ZEC), Dash (DASH), Verge (XVG), Horizen (ZEN), Beam (BEAM), Secret (SCRT), Decred (DCR), Keep Network (KEEP), and Dusk Network (DUSK).
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