In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve included data from a YouGov survey on the willingness to take the Covid-19 vaccine, and ranked countries based on daily vaccination rates per 100k population.
On the details:
Global Outlook: This week, an average of 24.7mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 17% WoW (Chart 2). The large weekly increase was driven mainly by China, where average daily doses increased 68% WoW, equivalent to 5mn extra doses a day. (Table 1). The country now accounts for more than half of global vaccinations, and ranks fourth on our list in terms of doses per 100k population (Chart 1). In all, 9.1% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up 0.7% WoW, and an estimated 7.3% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
Share of Population Vaccinated: North American and European countries have now vaccinated over 1 in 4 people with at least one dose (Chart 3). This week, however, the US has moved down two places our list, with Hungary and Chile overtaking and closing in on the 50% mark. The UK reached the same milestone a couple of weeks ago and, unlike Israel, has managed to maintain its vaccination rates (Chart 4). Part of this could be related to the UK population’s willingness to get vaccinated – a cross-country YouGov survey ranks the UK as the most willing to get a Covid-19 vaccination (Chart 6).
Doses: The majority of Asian countries experienced weekly declines in vaccination rates. India, for example, saw a 15% WoW fall in average daily doses administered. Elsewhere, Argentina and Turkey, who are also registering a high number of Covid-19 cases, have seen vaccination rates fall too. On the other hand, average daily doses in Brazil and Colombia rose significantly WoW. At the top of our vaccination list, the UK, Chile and Canada increased the number of vaccinations administered on last week, while Israel, Hungary, the US and EU suffered declines.
Manufacturers: Slowing vaccination rates in the US are unlikely to be offset by the increasing use of the single dose J&J vaccine. This week, just 5.1% of total doses (equivalent to 660,000) were administered using J&J, up from 4.2% last week. The Pfizer vaccine, on the other hand, accounted for 58% of total doses administered this week. Germany is also increasing its use of the J&J vaccine, but the manufacturer still only accounts for 0.5% of total doses (Chart 5).
Immunity: Based on the latest vaccination rates, Canada is now set to reach herd immunity by the end of June 2021 (Table 1). Hungary and Germany are next in line to break the 80% immunity target, and a significant number of other European countries should reach the mark by the end of Summer 2021. Only a handful of non-European countries will reach the same target in 2021. These include; China, the US, Chile and now Singapore.
Vlad Ionescu is a Macro Research Intern, currently undertaking an MSci in Management at UCL School of Management. He previously worked as an intern for an Investment Management firm.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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