COVID | Equities | ESG & Climate Change | FX | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates
2022 Grey Swans: The Complete List
- By Bilal Hafeez
- 3 min read
2021 has felt full of Grey Swans, from continuing COVID mutations to low rates in the face of high inflation. We therefore continue our tradition of picking Grey Swans for the upcoming year.
Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect. They are close cousins to Black Swans: high-impact events that no one expects.
Last year, we had picked 10 Grey Swans for 2021. Amazingly, some materialised. Notably, the Democrats won the Senate, and inflation surged. A few almost happened. US yields avoided going negative, but they went much lower than everyone thought. And while we saw no global carbon tax, carbon policy has impacted energy markets. Others failed to appear – China refrained from war over Taiwan, Biden failed to unite America, and we met no aliens (or did we?!).
But the main purpose of Grey Swans is not to be right. Rather, we hope to broaden our perspective on what could happen. This year, we have selected 15 Grey Swans. We hope you enjoy them!
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