The New York Jets win the Super Bowl in the 2022-2023 season… Even saying it with a straight face is hard. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book Black Swan, this outcome might be the darkest swan possible. And it certainly does not fit the bill as anything near grey.
So far in Macro Hive’s Grey Swan series, authors have proposed a U.S. recession, USD/BRL to 10, etc. While these are extremely unlikely, none comes close to the Jets winning the Super Bowl. For the unfamiliar:
- The Jets have not won a Super Bowl since 1969.
- The Jets have not even played in a Super Bowl since 1969.
- The Jets have lost 10 or more games (out of 17 per season, previously 16) in 22 of the past 40 seasons. That is more than half!
- The Jets currently have the longest streak in the NFL for not making the playoffs: 11 years and counting.
- The Jets have not even won their division in over 20 years.
The Jets are the laughingstock of the NFL. They may even be the laughingstock of the whole world of professional sports, and they have inflicted all sorts of misery on their tremendously loyal fanbase.
So, how can this sorry sports franchise win the Super Bowl in the 2022-2023 season?
In the offseason, the Jets will have lots of money to spend on free agents and many draft picks. They will most likely have two of the top 10 draft picks this year thanks to a trade with Seattle Seahawks over a year ago. This positions them to get two marquee players – one on defence and one on offence. The Jets could leave the first night of the draft with a star cornerback like Derek Stingley from LSU Tigers and a star wide receiver like Jameson Williams for Alabama. For the draft in general, the Jets have nine picks in the first five rounds. If General Manager Joe Douglas can turn this draft capital into a great class, the Jets could take a big leap from that.
The Jets will also have $50 million to spend on players next year, which they could turn into a star player and a few more role guys.
Between draft capital and free agency money, the Jets could finally hit and turn their team around – all in one year.
However, to take the big step, their young quarterback Zach Wilson must excel. And so far, he has not. But what if Wilson turns into another Josh Allen, whose 2020 breakout season saw him take the Buffalo Bills to their first division title and playoff victory since 1995?
This may seem unlikely right now as Wilson appears unable to complete any passes. Yet remember that, in his 2018 rookie season, now-superstar quarterback Allen also struggled to complete even simple passes. His rookie stats are almost as awful as Wilson’s.
Josh Allen’s 2018 stats:
- Completion percentage: 52.8%.
- Yards: 2,074.
- Touchdowns: 10.
- Interceptions: 12.
- QBR: 49.8.
- Passer rating: 67.9.
Zach Wilson’s 2021-2022 stats (nine games played):
- Completion percentage: 56.1%.
- Yards: 1,741.
- Touchdowns: 6.
- Interceptions: 11.
- QBR: 24.1.
- Passer rating: 65.3.
Imagine if a mobile quarterback with a huge arm and a ton of natural athleticism takes a nonlinear step following a disastrous rookie year… It has happened before!
So, here is how it all comes together. In 2022-2023, Zach Wilson turns into Josh Allen. The Jets get five good starters from the draft, including two Pro Bowl players with their two top 10 picks. The Jets get another star from free agency and turn into a Super Bowl Championship team in February 2023!
A Jets fan can dream…
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)