This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
I hope you’ve enjoyed our Grey Swans pieces on markets and US politics so far. Today we’re moving to inflation and war. John Butler brings a positive outlook for central banks, predicting that inflation will rise above target for many economies. And I wrote a piece on the US and China warring over Taiwan… bottom line is computer chips matter!
Both pieces are free for all our members, and as a reminder Grey Swans are those low probably high impact events that few expect. I hope you enjoy them – and look out for the next set tomorrow. As a bonus, sign up to our webinar today at 4pm GMT/11am ET, click here to register.
(1) 2021 Grey Swan #5: Central Bankers’ Prayers Are Answered: Inflation Surges (2 min read) Pent-up demand will be released causing a surge in inflation, writes John Butler. This would leave higher yields, steeper curves and outperformance of value stocks over growth.
(John Butler│ 9th December, 2020)
(2) 2021 Grey Swan #6: US and China Go to War Over Taiwan (2 min read) I lay out possible triggers of a full-scale war between China and the US, and the resulting market impact.
(Bilal Hafeez│ 9th December, 2020)
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)