John Butler

Macro Hive Author

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please email meettheresearchers@macrohive.com
SPECIALITY: Rates,

John Butler has 25 years experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012) and The Golden Revolution, Revisited.

MY ARTICLES

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Precious Metals Poised for a Historic Rally

May 25, 2021

Summary Multiple fundamental factors are coming together to spark a massive rally in Gold and Silver. We look at current conditions, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Global Commodities: Fresh Highs, Yet Signs of Initial Consolidation

May 21, 2021

Summary Global commodity prices are still rising. Iron ore and the BDI have seen minor consolidation. Chinese credit conditions and trade disputes…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin’s ‘Lightning Network’ Let-Down, Part 2: A Solution to One Problem, a Source of Another

March 12, 2021

Summary Bitcoin may be unique, but it faces competition. Centralisation in ‘Lightning Networks’ will increase competition further. An IMF/World Bank SDR global…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin’s ‘Lightning Network’ Let-Down, Part 1: A Solution to One Problem, a Source of Another

March 04, 2021

Summary Bitcoin's institutional acceptance continues apace, supporting the price. But bitcoin consumes an ever-growing amount of power, raising long-term concerns. A proposed…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Commodities Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

Tesla Bitcoin Bombshell: The Trickle May Turn to a Flood

February 12, 2021

Summary US corporate cash piles continue to grow but earn near zero interest Tesla's decision to reallocate to gold and bitcoin could…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities US

Silver Squeeze Success or Debacle? Historical Lessons for the Curious

February 02, 2021

Summary Silver prices and physical premia have spiked of late, with inventories depleting Rumours are a ‘Reddit Army’ is partly responsible The…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Higher Food and Energy Prices Spell Danger Ahead

January 14, 2021

Summary Food and energy prices have risen sharply of late Upward pressure on global manufacturing costs is a likely result US breakevens…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID EM

Why Are Iron Ore Prices Surging?

December 22, 2020

Supply issues pushing iron ore prices to fresh highs. Iron appears overextended vs other industrial commodities. Chinese steel producers have blamed speculators.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID

Iron Ore Insights

December 10, 2020

Summary Recovering steel production has pulled iron ore prices sharply higher. De-stockpiling appears to have begun, capping further price gains near term.…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation US

2021 Grey Swan #5: Central Bankers’ Prayers Are Answered: Inflation Surges

December 09, 2020

‘Take care for what you pray; for the Gods may one day grant it to you,’ is an old proverb with similar…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Guess What’s Coming to Dinner? Inflation!

November 26, 2020

Summary: Sharp increases in grains prices this year may have an unexpectedly broad impact on inflation generally Energy price declines appear to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Post-Election Update

November 12, 2020

This year’s dollar decline has resumed. Having paused during election season, the downtrend restarted as the country entered the final stage of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

October 22, 2020

Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Update And Broad Market Implications

October 08, 2020

Summary The dollar could be losing its reserve currency status This could lead to higher US interests and less ability for the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

September 28, 2020

Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

September 17, 2020

The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

Bitcoin Gold

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Commodities US

Could US Tech Companies Start Buying Gold And Bitcoin?

August 20, 2020

US corporate cash holdings have risen to record highs in recent years, both outright and as a percentage of net worth. A…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part II)

August 06, 2020

In Part I of this series I examined a few popular, mainstream critiques of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concluded that they…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part I)

July 16, 2020

MMT in a Nutshell, and Mainstream Criticism With government deficits exploding around the world as economic officials seek to counter the various…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Global

Iron Ore: A Primer On The ‘New Crude’

July 09, 2020

After crude oil, iron ore is the world’s largest traded commodity by both weight and value. At any one point in time,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Commodities COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation

Fintech In Crisis, Part II: From Alternative Payments To Alternative Money

July 08, 2020

In Part I of this series, I explored how the Covid-19 scare has highlighted some of the major challenges already facing the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto COVID

Fintech In Crisis – And NOT Because Of Covid-19

July 02, 2020

[Bearish Fintech] The fintech industry is in crisis, and on multiple fronts. Two had already become active before the Covid-19 scare: alternative…

Oil 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID US

Reinforcing Our Bullish Oil Call With Driving And Mobility Data

July 01, 2020

Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

Oil 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Global

Oil To Break 2020 Highs

June 16, 2020

Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

Dollar Peak

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked – Part II

June 11, 2020

In part I of this series, I claimed that the US dollar shares some characteristics with risky assets, notwithstanding its reputation for being a safe…

USD has peaked

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked – Part I

June 04, 2020

The past week has seen a sharp decline in the US dollar, both versus major currencies and in broad, trade-weighted terms. While this could be a mere…

German Constitutional Court Ruling

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics

The Hidden Significance Of The German Constitutional Court Ruling

May 07, 2020

This week the German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruled that the Bundesbank must clarify that its participation in unconventional, ECB-mandated bond…

BTC Reward Halvening

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto COVID

Will The COVID-19 Scare Propel Bitcoin Higher?

April 30, 2020

Bitcoin has drawn speculative attention recently in part because of the much-anticipated ‘halving’ taking place in the coming weeks…

Oil Crash

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities US

Could We Get An Oil-Driven Stagflation Shock?

April 23, 2020

Over the past week we have witnessed an unprecedented collapse in the benchmark US WTI oil future price to outright negative levels. This was due…

Gold Bonds

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

India’s Sovereign Gold Bonds: An Example For The World To Follow?

April 16, 2020

Earlier this week, India announced it would issue another series of gold-linked bonds. These still represent just a tiny portion of the government’s…

Commodity Overview

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Commodities: An Investment Framework, Part II

April 09, 2020

Part I of this series explained why commodities investing is generally problematic: it doesn’t necessarily diversify a portfolio of financial assets, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID Equities

Coronavirus: A Stagflationary Supply Shock?

March 19, 2020

The unfolding supply shock from COVID-19 could see a more pronounced period of stagflation than that of the 1970s / early 1980s. Commodities can…

Silver Bars

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID

Will Coronavirus Propel Silver Higher?

March 12, 2020

In my recent series on gold, I provided an investment framework and valuation methodology based on the opportunity cost and demand function for…

Commodity Production

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Commodities: An Investment Framework, Part I

March 05, 2020

Global commodities prices have recently declined sharply, along with a general ‘risk-off’ trade in financial markets. But commodities were already in…

Gold Buyers

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset, Part III

February 20, 2020

In Part I of this series I derived a valuation framework for gold as a proven form of ‘insurance’ against potential losses in a portfolio of financial assets…

Gold Bars

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities

Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset, Part II

February 06, 2020

Gold has the unique and valuable characteristic of being a de facto form of ‘insurance’ for a portfolio of financial assets, and the national fiat currencies…

Gold

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset

January 23, 2020

Gold no longer serves as an official money in the modern financial system, yet it is still considered an important asset due to its established…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Paul ‘Darth’ Volcker (1927-2019): Monetary Jedi Knight, or Sith Lord?

December 19, 2019

Shortly after assuming the role of Chairman of the US Federal Reserve in 1979, Paul Volcker was nicknamed ‘Darth Volcker’…

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