John Butler

Macro Hive Author

If you would like to connect and contact the author,
please email [email protected]
SPECIALITY: Investing, Asset Allocation, Rates,

John Butler has 25 years experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012) and The Golden Revolution, Revisited.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

    September 28, 2020

    Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

    September 17, 2020

    The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

  • Bitcoin Gold

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy US

    Could US Tech Companies Start Buying Gold And Bitcoin?

    August 20, 2020

    US corporate cash holdings have risen to record highs in recent years, both outright and as a percentage of net worth. A…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part II)

    August 06, 2020

    In Part I of this series I examined a few popular, mainstream critiques of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concluded that they…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

    MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part I)

    July 16, 2020

    MMT in a Nutshell, and Mainstream Criticism With government deficits exploding around the world as economic officials seek to counter the various…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy

    Iron Ore: A Primer On The ‘New Crude’

    July 09, 2020

    After crude oil, iron ore is the world’s largest traded commodity by both weight and value. At any one point in time,…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology COVID-19

    Fintech In Crisis, Part II: From Alternative Payments To Alternative Money

    July 08, 2020

    In Part I of this series, I explored how the Covid-19 scare has highlighted some of the major challenges already facing the…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology COVID-19

    Fintech In Crisis – And NOT Because Of Covid-19

    July 02, 2020

    [Bearish Fintech] The fintech industry is in crisis, and on multiple fronts. Two had already become active before the Covid-19 scare: alternative…

  • Oil 2020

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Oil To Break 2020 Highs

    June 16, 2020

    Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

  • Dollar Peak

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The Dollar Has Peaked – Part II

    June 11, 2020

    In part I of this series, I claimed that the US dollar shares some characteristics with risky assets, notwithstanding its reputation for being a safe…

  • USD has peaked

    In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The Dollar Has Peaked – Part I

    June 04, 2020

    The past week has seen a sharp decline in the US dollar, both versus major currencies and in broad, trade-weighted terms. While this could be a mere…

  • German Constitutional Court Ruling

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

    The Hidden Significance Of The German Constitutional Court Ruling

    May 07, 2020

    This week the German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruled that the Bundesbank must clarify that its participation in unconventional, ECB-mandated bond…

  • BTC Reward Halvening

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology

    Will The COVID-19 Scare Propel Bitcoin Higher?

    April 30, 2020

    Bitcoin has drawn speculative attention recently in part because of the much-anticipated ‘halving’ taking place in the coming weeks…

  • Oil Crash

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Economics

    Could We Get An Oil-Driven Stagflation Shock?

    April 23, 2020

    Over the past week we have witnessed an unprecedented collapse in the benchmark US WTI oil future price to outright negative levels. This was due…

  • Gold Bonds

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Monetary Policy & Inflation

    India’s Sovereign Gold Bonds: An Example For The World To Follow?

    April 16, 2020

    Earlier this week, India announced it would issue another series of gold-linked bonds. These still represent just a tiny portion of the government’s…

  • Commodity Overview

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy Economics Investment Strategy Monetary Policy & Inflation

    Commodities: An Investment Framework, Part II

    April 09, 2020

    Part I of this series explained why commodities investing is generally problematic: it doesn’t necessarily diversify a portfolio of financial assets, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Economics Equities

    Coronavirus: A Stagflationary Supply Shock?

    March 19, 2020

    The unfolding supply shock from COVID-19 could see a more pronounced period of stagflation than that of the 1970s / early 1980s. Commodities can…

  • Silver Bars

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy

    Will Coronavirus Propel Silver Higher?

    March 12, 2020

    In my recent series on gold, I provided an investment framework and valuation methodology based on the opportunity cost and demand function for…

  • Commodity Production

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Commodities: An Investment Framework, Part I

    March 05, 2020

    Global commodities prices have recently declined sharply, along with a general ‘risk-off’ trade in financial markets. But commodities were already in…

  • Gold Buyers

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Economics

    Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset, Part III

    February 20, 2020

    In Part I of this series I derived a valuation framework for gold as a proven form of ‘insurance’ against potential losses in a portfolio of financial assets…

  • Gold Bars

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy Rates

    Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset, Part II

    February 06, 2020

    Gold has the unique and valuable characteristic of being a de facto form of ‘insurance’ for a portfolio of financial assets, and the national fiat currencies…

  • Gold

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy

    Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset

    January 23, 2020

    Gold no longer serves as an official money in the modern financial system, yet it is still considered an important asset due to its established…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Paul ‘Darth’ Volcker (1927-2019): Monetary Jedi Knight, or Sith Lord?

    December 19, 2019

    Shortly after assuming the role of Chairman of the US Federal Reserve in 1979, Paul Volcker was nicknamed ‘Darth Volcker’…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

    September 28, 2020

    Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

    September 17, 2020

    The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

  • Bitcoin Gold

    In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy US

    Could US Tech Companies Start Buying Gold And Bitcoin?

    August 20, 2020

    US corporate cash holdings have risen to record highs in recent years, both outright and as a percentage of net worth. A…

  • Oil 2020

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Reinforcing Our Bullish Oil Call With Driving And Mobility Data

    July 01, 2020

    Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

  • Oil 2020

    In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

    Oil To Break 2020 Highs

    June 16, 2020

    Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

  • MACRO HIVE AUTHORS

    ALL AUTHORS