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By Bilal Hafeez 02-07-2020
In: post | Newsletter

Exclusives: Fed Pivot / Brazil’s Woes / Wirecard Adds To Fintech Crisis

(4 min read)
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Wirecard’s spectacular demise has put fintech back in the spotlight. Markets expert John Butler explores what this means for the future of fintech

On the US, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut writes on the market implications of the Fed’s pivot towards credit to the real economy. Turning to politics, we updated our weekly US election tracker plus we featured leading economist Phil Suttle on economic policy under a Biden presidency earlier this week. Do have a read if you haven’t already seen it. Our regular COVID tracker also highlights the US daily case count topping 50,000 for the first time. 

In EM, former BCA EM strategist Rajeeb Pramanik writes on Brazil’s dismal economic performance in recent years and what it means for asset markets.





Fintech In Crisis – And NOT Because Of Covid-19 (8 min read) The fintech industry is in crisis, and on multiple fronts. Two had already become active before the Covid-19 scare: alternative lending and alternative currency. Now, the spectacular collapse of German payments firm Wirecard has opened up a third: alternative payments.

(John Butler | 2nd July, 2020)


Is The Fed Moving Away From LSAPs? (3 min read) The Fed could be moving towards an operational framework where it directly targets access to credit in the real economy rather than targets financial conditions through LSAPs. If so, balance sheet growth could disappoint in Q3, and this could put a floor under the dollar, steepen the yield curve and still support equities through lower credit spreads volatility.

(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut | 2nd July, 2020)



Economic Policy Changes Under Biden (6 min read) The US presidential election is now just over 4 months away. The race is between incumbent Republican Donald Trump and Democratic former vice-president Joe Biden. A Trump re-election would imply a continuation of the (albeit very volatile) status quo. For financial markets, a Biden victory would imply more change.

(Phil Suttle | 29th June, 2020)


Brazil: Looking Into The Abyss? (4 min read) The Brazilian economy is sliding into a deep recession: it has begun to contract even in nominal terms for the first time in living memory. And the country was barely out of its previous recession in 2014-16, marred by a subdued recovery. The ongoing pandemic has pushed Brazil’s economic activity back down to the levels seen before the global financial crisis.

(Rajeeb Pramanik | 2nd July, 2020)


Brazil Economy


Hive Indicators

Trump Shadow


US Election Tracker – Will The Democrats Win The Senate? Joe Biden’s popularity continues to increase. Latest swing state polls show him well ahead of Trump and his sizeable lead in national polls is now relatively steady following a spike in May. Another sign of his rising popularity can be seen in fundraising. Biden’s campaign has raised more than the Trump campaign for two consecutive months now helped by an online fundraising even last week by former President Obama.

(Bilal Hafeez, Caroline Grady | 2nd July, 2020)


Global COVID-19 Tracker – Largest Daily Surge In US Cases / India Evacuates People In the DM world, the US recorded a 2% increase in cases. At 51,817 it is the largest daily jump since the start of the pandemics. 22 states have case rates higher than 5% including Arizona (24%), Florida (16%), and Alabama (15%). California, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Washington with values between 5% and 6%.

(Bilal Hafeez, Stefan Posea | 2nd July, 2020)


Coronavirus Update



(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)