Joe Biden’s popularity continues to increase. Latest swing state polls show him well ahead of Trump and his sizeable lead in national polls is now relatively steady following a spike in May. Another sign of his rising popularity can be seen in fundraising. Biden’s campaign has raised more than the Trump campaign for two consecutive months now helped by an online fundraising even last week by former President Obama…
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Joe Biden’s popularity continues to increase. Latest swing state polls show him well ahead of Trump and his sizeable lead in national polls is now relatively steady following a spike in May. Another sign of his rising popularity can be seen in fundraising. Biden’s campaign has raised more than the Trump campaign for two consecutive months now helped by an online fundraising even last week by former President Obama.
Trump’s handling of the COVID crisis continues to hurt his popularity which remains stuck in the low 40s. Reopening plans have been disrupted as new daily cases spike (Wednesday’s case count climbed over 50,000 for the first time) yet Trump has attributed rising cases numbers to increased testing. As his handling of the economy is the only area where Trump polls ahead of Biden a delayed economic recovery will significantly hurt his re-election bid.
We featured two polls (fivethirtyeight and CNBC) on swing states last week and this week include one from the New York Times. This shows an even larger margin in favour of Biden at 6 points or more in all key states.
Table 1: NYT/Siena Polls points to a significant lead for Biden in swing states
Senate Sweep?
The policy impact of a Biden victory is contingent on whether the Democrats take the Senate. Prediction markets show the odds of this increasing sharply in recent months and over the past year have risen from around 30% to 60% currently. Should the Democrats control both the House and the Senate after November’s election Biden’s policies of tax increases and higher spending will become an economic reality.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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