Growth Traipsing Lower Ahead of Party Congress

We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.

Summary

• Our market data-based tracker has continued to weaken following a renewed weakening in the economic data-based tracker (Charts 1 and 2).

Growth Appears Weak Ahead of Party Congress

• Our market data-based tracker is nearing the lows it hit in summer, with year-on-year growth falling across iron ore, copper, oil, and 10-year yields (Charts 3, 4, 5, and 7). Year-on-year growth for the Baltic Dry Index increased due to base effects (Chart 6).
• Our economic data-based tracker is unchanged this week (Table 2). Previously, a weaker PMI helped snap it out of a three-month period of improvement.

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

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