Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index has continued to worsen. Poor trade data helped the economic data-based China growth tracker follow suit. Our market data-based China growth tracker weakened, too.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index has continued to worsen following the weaker May PMI outturn.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index suggests the composite PMI will slip to 53.3 for May. Our market data-based China growth tracker remained pessimistic. In contrast, our economic data-based China growth tracker continues to produce a positive outlook on the economy with Manufacturing New Orders the only negative component.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index continues to suggest weakening activity ahead. Our market data-based China growth tracker followed suit.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China reopening index continues to suggest China’s incoming data will do little to support a China recovery theme.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity fell through April, as confirmed by PMIs for the period. In line with this, our market data-based China growth tracker has weakened, despite a positive preliminary update to our economic data-based China growth tracker through April (Charts 2 and 3).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity has fallen through April. In line with this, our market data-based China growth tracker has failed to improve, despite a strongly positive update to our economic data-based China growth tracker through March (Charts 2 and 3).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity has stalled through April.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index appears to have accelerated its ascent.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index appears to have restarted its ascent.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index has regressed through March.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index has moved sideways over the past week.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index has turned lower following a strong February which saw PMIs surprise to the upside.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index is sat a touch below record highs and is leading PMIs. We’ll be on the watch for a higher reading in March.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index has hit a bump in the road as subway use and travel congestion eases in major cities.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high-frequency China reopening index continues to rally higher, surpassing 2021 peaks. However, it is fast diverging from our market data-based tracker suggesting markets have yet to fully price the reopening (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our new high frequency China reopening index continues to rally higher. It is yet to reach peak activity levels seen in 2021 but is fast approaching there.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
We create a new high frequency index to track China’s rapid reopening. We note that the economy has only just returned to the same activity levels seen throughout 2022.
Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
Our indices remain separated with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line. The convergence seen over the past weeks was due to the market-based tracker scaling back rather than the economic data-based tracker catching up (Charts 1 and 2).
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