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China Growth Trackersee more…

  1. China Growth Tracker: Worsening Data Outturns Likely to Continue

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index has continued to worsen following the weaker May PMI outturn.

  2. China Growth Tracker: May Composite PMI to Slip to 53.3

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index suggests the composite PMI will slip to 53.3 for May. Our market data-based China growth tracker remained pessimistic. In contrast, our economic data-based China growth tracker continues to produce a positive outlook on the economy with Manufacturing New Orders the only negative component.

  3. China Growth Tracker: Reopening Index Suggests PMIs Will Fall Further in May

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index continues to suggest weakening activity ahead. Our market data-based China growth tracker followed suit.

  1. China Growth Tracker: Data Disappointing in Line with Our Reopening Index

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our high-frequency China reopening index continues to suggest China’s incoming data will do little to support a China recovery theme.

  2. China Growth Tracker: PMIs Confirm Weakening in Our Reopening Index

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity fell through April, as confirmed by PMIs for the period. In line with this, our market data-based China growth tracker has weakened, despite a positive preliminary update to our economic data-based China growth tracker through April (Charts 2 and 3).

  3. China Growth Tracker: Domestic Demand Stalls as International Flights Pick Up

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity has fallen through April. In line with this, our market data-based China growth tracker has failed to improve, despite a strongly positive update to our economic data-based China growth tracker through March (Charts 2 and 3).

China Growth Tracker: Travel Proving the Only Positive in April

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Excluding flights from our high-frequency China reopening index, activity has stalled through April.

China Growth Tracker: Reopening Index Accelerates Through April

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Our new high-frequency China reopening index appears to have accelerated its ascent.

  1. China Growth Tracker: Economic Index Restarts Ascent

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high-frequency China reopening index appears to have restarted its ascent.

  2. China Growth Tracker: Reopening Regresses

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high-frequency China reopening index has regressed through March.

  3. China Growth Tracker: Indices Suggest Reopening Has Slowed in March

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high-frequency China reopening index has moved sideways over the past week.

China Growth Tracker: Reopening Tracker Suggesting Weak Start to March

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Our new high-frequency China reopening index has turned lower following a strong February which saw PMIs surprise to the upside.

China Growth Tracker: Is the Reopening About to Falter?

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Our new high-frequency China reopening index is sat a touch below record highs and is leading PMIs. We’ll be on the watch for a higher reading in March.

  1. China Growth Tracker: Has Activity Reached a Peak?

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high-frequency China reopening index has hit a bump in the road as subway use and travel congestion eases in major cities.

  2. China Growth Tracker: Markets Diverging from China Reopening

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high-frequency China reopening index continues to rally higher, surpassing 2021 peaks. However, it is fast diverging from our market data-based tracker suggesting markets have yet to fully price the reopening (Chart 1).

  3. China Growth Tracker: Economic Data Confirms Turn in Fortune

    Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

    Our new high frequency China reopening index continues to rally higher. It is yet to reach peak activity levels seen in 2021 but is fast approaching there. 

China Growth Tracker: How Fast Is China Reopening?

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

We create a new high frequency index to track China’s rapid reopening. We note that the economy has only just returned to the same activity levels seen throughout 2022.

China Growth Tracker: Is China Recovering?

Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford

Our indices remain separated with the China re-opening likely to pay dividends to economic data releases further down the line. The convergence seen over the past weeks was due to the market-based tracker scaling back rather than the economic data-based tracker catching up (Charts 1 and 2).

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