China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker: Reopening Tracker Suggesting Weak Start to March
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
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- 2 min read
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our new high-frequency China reopening index has turned lower following a strong February which saw PMIs surprise to the upside.
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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our new high-frequency China reopening index has turned lower following a strong February which saw PMIs surprise to the upside.
- Our market data-based China growth tracker has returned to YTD lows (Chart 2). Our economic-based China growth tracker is unchanged, having sparked higher following stronger-than-expected PMIs (Chart 3).
China Reopening Index Suggests Weaker March Composite PMI
Our high-frequency China reopening index has peeled back from record highs, potentially identifying a weaker March PMI (Chart 1). However, it has exhibited volatility throughout its history and, therefore, could continue to drive even higher.
In line with our reopening index, our market data-based China growth tracker scaled back by nine points to return to YTD lows (Table 1). Meanwhile, our economic-based China growth tracker is unchanged over the past week, up 61 points for February (Table 2).