China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker: Reopening Regresses
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
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- 2 min read
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our new high-frequency China reopening index has regressed through March.
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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our new high-frequency China reopening index has regressed through March.
- Our market data-based China growth tracker has seen a similar path over the period while our economic data-based China growth tracker shows that the reopening is passing through to official data (Charts 2 and 3).
China Reopening Yet to Improve in March
Our high-frequency China reopening index has stagnated through March, falling over the past week (Chart 1). Therefore, there is risk for China March PMIs to equally regress. However, we note that has exhibited volatility throughout its history and, therefore, could eventually drive higher once more.
In line with our reopening index, our market data-based China growth tracker has pared progress made in January and February (Table 1). Iron ore and the Baltic Dry Index proved the only positive contributors. Meanwhile, our economic-based China growth tracker continued to show progress through February with imports improving YoY.