08 September 2023 China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets

China Growth Tracker: Re-Opening Index Stabilises

Summary

- Overall, our high-frequency China reopening index continues to stabilise, although our travel indicator (which looks at road congestion and subway traffic) looks to be stalling.
- Our economic data index (which looks at the latest data releases out of China) continues to fall, pulled down by the weaker-than-expected services PMIs this month.

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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.

Summary

Overall, our high-frequency China reopening index continues to stabilise, although our travel indicator (which looks at road congestion and subway traffic) looks to be stalling.
Our economic data index (which looks at the latest data releases out of China) continues to fall, pulled down by the weaker-than-expected services PMIs this month.

China Attempts to Stabilise Its Property Sector

China continues to announce several policy measures aimed at stablising its struggling property sector. The slew of incremental policy support announced in recent weeks drove much of the rise. Examples include the easing of mortgage rules (making it easier to be classed as a first-time buyer) and a decrease in mortgage rates. We’ve seen market prices respond, as shown by higher iron ore, copper, and property-linked share prices.

On the data front, it looks like manufacturing PMIs may have bottomed, as an early signal of a bottoming in the industrial sector of the economy. We know auto production has been strong but are watching to see if we get a broadening of the rebound. However, CNY continues to weaken, so we watch this closely and look to see how the PBOC intervenes, if at all.

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

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China Growth Tracker: Re-Opening Index Stabilises

Summary

Summary

China Attempts to Stabilise Its Property Sector

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

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China Growth Tracker: Re-Opening Index Stabilises

Summary

Summary

China Attempts to Stabilise Its Property Sector

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

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Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

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