China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker: Market-Based Tracker Diverging from Hard Data
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
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- 2 min read
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our high-frequency China reopening index pared recent positivity as port data worsened.
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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our high-frequency China reopening index pared recent positivity as port data worsened.
- Our China growth tracker based on economic data accelerated its decline. In contrast, our market-based China growth tracker has improved on the back of iron ore and copper price changes.
Market Tracker Appears Optimistic Versus Actual Outturns
Positivity in our high-frequency China reopening index pared as port data worsened and recent strength in travel and box office contributions faded (Charts 1 and 2). As a result, it is now less clear whether the July PMI will increase from June.
In a similar light, our economic data-based China growth tracker has continued to worsen, now at -0.33, down from -0.01 in May (Chart 4 and Table 2). In contrast, our market-based China growth tracker has continued to drive higher with improving contributions from iron ore and copper prices (Chart 3 and table 1).
