China Growth Tracker: Indices Suggest Reopening Has Slowed in March

We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.

Summary

• Our new high-frequency China reopening index has moved sideways over the past week.
• Our market data-based China growth tracker has seen a similar path over the period while our economic data-based China growth tracker is unchanged (Charts 2 and 3).

China Reopening Yet to Improve in March

Our high-frequency China reopening index has remained below record highs, having moved sideways over the past week (Chart 1). It is signalling a weaker March PMI. However, it has exhibited volatility throughout its history and, therefore, could eventually drive higher once more.

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

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