China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker: China 2023 Optimism Losing Steam
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
- 2 min read
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- The World Bank raised their forecast of real Chinese growth to 5.6% for 2023. This sits in contrast with private forecasts which have become less optimistic over the past month.
- Looking forward, downward forecast revisions may slow; our reopening index suggests the China PMI could lead higher next month.
- For now, our own economic data-based tracker has returned negative, joining our market-based China growth tracker.
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- The World Bank raised their forecast of real Chinese growth to 5.6% for 2023. This sits in contrast with private forecasts which have become less optimistic over the past month.
- Looking forward, downward forecast revisions may slow; our reopening index suggests the China PMI could lead higher next month.
- For now, our own economic data-based tracker has returned negative, joining our market-based China growth tracker.
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