China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker – All Three Trackers Weaken
- By Bilal Hafeez and Ben Ford
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- 2 min read
We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our high-frequency China reopening index has continued to worsen.
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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- Our high-frequency China reopening index has continued to worsen.
- Poor trade data helped the economic data-based China growth tracker follow suit. Our market data-based China growth tracker weakened, too.
Weakening Trade Data
May trade balance data offered further evidence that the weak demand, both foreign and domestic, is hampering the recovery. Exports fell 7.5% YoY, worse than the 1.8% expected contraction, while imports slipped 4.5% YoY, better than the 8% consensus had expected. The latter adds to the already pessimistic outturns we have seen in economic data (Chart 4 and Table 2).
The worsening trade data has come alongside a weaker update in our reopening index (Chart 1). High-frequency economic components have worsened and are only offset by bettering travel data (Chart 2).
Elsewhere, our market data-based China growth tracker has touched lower as YoY growth weakened for iron ore, oil and China 10Y yields (Chart 3 and Table 1). Copper and the Baltic dry index saw YoY growth improve.
