Ben and Dominique explore the market’s hawkish over-interpretation of recent Fed minutes and the potential for global supply chain disruptions to impact underlying inflation. They analyse the sustainability of US consumer spending, arguing that a record-low savings rate will eventually force a growth slowdown and limit business pricing power. As the focus shifts to Walsh’s swearing-in and a potential “hawkish Wednesday” of speakers, the duo highlights the upcoming Summary of Economic Projections as the key indicator for future policy shifts. Dominique maintains that current Q2 growth forecasts are likely inflated and continues to predict one insurance rate cut by year-end as fiscal policy remains restrictive.
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