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Grey Swan
Grey Swan #10 – BoJ Brings Back YCC!
Macro Hive
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A Big Policy Reversal So far, the BoJ has been able to anchor inflation expectations, but that could all change in 2026. On the external front, the US’s tariffs […]
2025 Grey Swans – The Complete List
Macro Hive
New Year, New Risks Threats of nuclear war, Elon in government and a (brief) coup in South Korea – 2024 has already pushed the boundaries on grey swans: those massive, almost impossible to predict events. So, in our annual assessment of possible grey swans for 2025, we go the extra mile in stretching the imagination. […]
Macro & Market Implications of US Elections
Macro Hive
Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]
How to Invest in Oil and Are Oil Stocks a Good to Buy Now?
Macro Hive
As of July 2023, we believe oil stocks are an attractive investment (via the energy ETF XLE). As we wrote back in April, “energy companies continue to emphasize returning cash to investors over ramping up exploration and production. Returns will come via higher dividends and share buybacks.”