Viresh and Dominique analyse the decoupling of headline and core inflation, noting that household budgets are being squeezed even as passthrough from energy to the broad price index remains limited. They examine how a recovery in labour supply, linked to changes in immigration enforcement, is driving job gains while maintaining wage disinflation. As the Fed prepares to hold rates steady, the discussion centres on new Chair Walsh’s potential reforms to central bank communications and his challenge in reconciling divergent hawkish and dovish views within the FOMC. Dominique points to slowing rental inflation and a cooling in super core services as evidence of continued disinflation, suggesting that while the Fed may adopt a neutral bias, the next Fed move remains a data-dependent risk for the fourth quarter.
(This market commentary has been prepared by Macro Hive Limited (“Macro Hive”). This market commentary is made available to you for general information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of any investment product, to act, or not to act, in any way whatsoever and does not represent an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, financial products or related financial services or to adopt an investment strategy. The market commentary is provided on an ‘as is’ and ‘as available’ basis. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Macro Hive excludes all representations or warranties of any kind, including any implied warranty of merchantability, satisfactory quality or fitness for a particular purpose. Macro Hive excludes all liability for any losses (whether direct or indirect) that may be suffered as a result of reliance on this market commentary. The contents of this publication are confidential. Macro Hive retains all ownership, title, rights and interest in the market commentary. You must not copy or redistribute any part of this market commentary (in whole or in part) to any other person without the express written authority of Macro Hive. Although information in this market commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Macro Hive does not represent or warrant the suitability, accuracy or completeness of the material and such information may be incomplete and/or condensed. Any rights existing in such information shall remain the property of the source. Macro Hive has no obligation to update or correct any information. If markets or performance are discussed, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and forwardlooking statements involve risks and uncertainties. In the event that you are a US person (as defined by the SEC or CFTC) this message is sent by Macro Hive Markets, a trading division of GFI Securities Limited and is also subject to the disclaimers available here: Sales – GFI Group)
