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24 February 2023 China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets | Europe | Politics & Geopolitics

Ep. 152: Timothy Ash on Russia’s Failure, China Intervention and EM Re-Alignment

Bilal Hafeez

By Bilal Hafeez
1 min read

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss:

What caused the collapse of the Soviet Union
Why Russia didn’t have a quick victory against Ukraine
Putin’s goal of a frozen conflict
Ukraine’s likely spring offensive
China brokering peace deal
The end of Russian military exports
Who would replace Putin if he lost power?
Views on India/Global South’s neutrality on Russia/Ukraine
Shifts in European views on Russia
What markets are tradeable in emerging markets
How markets are pricing Russia/Ukraine risks
Next winter energy risks
Books recommended by Tim: Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Hill), Red Notice (Browder), Bloodlands (Snyder)

You can follow Tim on Twitter and Substack

Read the full transcript here.

Make sure to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you go for your podcasts. You can follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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