Ep. 152: Timothy Ash on Russia’s Failure, China Intervention and EM Re-Alignment  

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss: 

• What caused the collapse of the Soviet Union
  
• Why Russia didn’t have a quick victory against Ukraine
  
• Putin’s goal of a frozen conflict
  
• Ukraine’s likely spring offensive 
• China brokering peace deal 
• The end of Russian military exports 
• Who would replace Putin if he lost power? 
• Views on India/Global South’s neutrality on Russia/Ukraine 
• Shifts in European views on Russia 
• What markets are tradeable in emerging markets 
• How markets are pricing Russia/Ukraine risks 
• Next winter energy risks 
• Books recommended by Tim: Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Hill), Red Notice (Browder), Bloodlands (Snyder) 

You can follow Tim on Twitter and Substack 

Read the full transcript here.

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