By Bilal Hafeez Sam van de Schootbrugge 10-08-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker – The European Quarantine-Exemption Lists Get Smaller

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  • Last week, the world registered 1.5mn new COVID-19 cases, a weekly rise of 8%. Total registered cases now stands at 19.9mn, with deaths totalling 731,500. The average number of cases per 100,000 population in our sample is 389. Chile has reported the highest number (1,952), followed by the US (1,524) and Brazil (1,428).
  • On Saturday, Brazil passed 100,000 COVID-19 deaths. The first 50,000 were registered in three months, while the second 50,000 were recorded in just 50 days. The country is still in the peak of its crisis, as it continues to register over 50,000 new cases a day and its 3d moving average is in the 86th percentile (Scatter below).
  • Since our last report, India has become the third country to surpass 2mn cases. It recorded 350,000 new cases over the last seven days, adding 19% to the total number of cases. The country also registered over 5,000 new deaths last week, the third highest in our sample.
  • There are a number of European countries that have imposed stricter measures to curb infection rates:
    • The Netherlands has introduced new local, regional and nationwide rules to avoid a second lockdown. The country registered 4,000 new cases last week, and the weekly change in 3d moving average is up 63%, one of the highest in Europe.
    • In Germany, free testing at airports has become compulsory for all travellers arriving from high-risk countries. A total of 6,000 new infections was recorded last week as the country breached 1,000-a-day for the first time since May.
    • France is also grappling with an upturn in cases. It registered 10,000 new cases last week, the largest weekly rise since May. The country has banned gatherings of more than 10 people in some regions, and mask-wearing in busy outdoor areas is compulsory.
    • Malta has banned mass gatherings and made it mandatory to wear masks in public on Friday. The country’s 3d moving average is in the 100th percentile, as the country added over a fifth to its total number of cases (1,089) last week.
    • Greece has seen a surge in new cases as the holiday season brings in tourists. The 3d moving average is also in the 100th percentile, and the weekly change in this statistic is up 53%. The country made it obligatory to wear face masks in supermarkets, shops, cafes, banks, government offices and hairdressers.
    • Last week, Belgium banned tourism to several parts of France, Spain and Switzerland. The country has itself been removed from quarantine exemption lists, as it recorded 4,300 new cases last week. Yesterday, the population-adjusted 3d moving average in Belgium was 6.14, the second highest on our list of European countries, behind Malta (10.8).
    • Other popular European holiday destinations are Spain and Italy. The former has seen its weekly change in 3d moving average fall, while Italy’s has increased 49%. Spain registered over 21,000 new cases over the last seven days, the highest in Europe.
  • Yesterday, Australia recorded its deadliest coronavirus day. The country recorded over 100 new deaths last week, bringing the total to 313. There was a 6.1% change in daily deaths per 100,000 population (Table below), second only to Hong Kong (10.6%).
  • US coronavirus infections have surpassed 5mn. There has, however, been a 6% fall in the weekly change in 3d moving average. The country continues to register daily cases in the 50,000s, but the 10d moving average seems to be declining (Graph below). As the president urges schools to reopen, a report from the American Academy of Paediatrics indicates that 8.8% of all US cases are among children.








 

 

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)