Global coronavirus cases surpass 18 million, with total deaths approaching 700,000. The US accounts for over a quarter of global cases, whilst Chile has the highest number of cases per 100,000 population (1,882).
For countries with over 50,000 cases, the Netherlands (218%), Spain (161%) and the Philippines (128%) recorded the largest weekly changes in their 3d moving averages. Over the last seven days, Brazil (181), the US (131) and Israel (125) added the most daily cases per 100,000 population. Over the same period, Australia (23%), Colombia (22%) and Argentina (19%) reported the most number of new deaths as a proportion of their total number of COVID-19 deaths.
Over the weekend, Victoria declared a state of disaster after a spike in cases. Australia recorded over 600 new cases on Sunday (3.7% daily rise) and 3,003 for the week. This weekly number represents 17% of the country’s total number of cases. The weekly change in 3d MA has, however, fallen by 23%.
Japan is recording new daily case numbers in the 100th percentile. The country is facing a reality check, after the total number of COVID-19 cases rose by a fifth last week. Despite the rise, the country has just 31 cases per 100,000 population (see table below).
According to official statistics, Iran has recorded 368 cases per 100,000 population, four more cases than the average country in our sample. New data suggests this figure could be 50% higher, ranking it nearer to Spain and Colombia. Actual deaths could also be as much as 150% higher than reported.
Popular European holiday destinations are experiencing upturns in coronavirus cases. Malta registered just under 20% of its total cases over the last seven days . Greece has one of the fastest growing 3d moving averages in the sample, rising 181% over the last week. Spain reported a 534% month-on-month rise in cases, the highest out of countries with a similar number of total cases.
Finally, Hong Kong is recording the largest daily increases in deaths. In relative terms, Israel and Colombia are also reporting figures in the 100th percentile. According to our scatter diagram, many emerging countries seem to be in the peak of their COVID-19 waves.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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