- Colombia experienced the largest daily increase in COVID-19 cases. This rise has been part of an upward trend (charts below), with the 3d moving average up 116% and the weekly change in 3d moving average up 27%. Yesterday, the government extended lockdown measures by one month.
- Australia, Hong Kong and Japan continue to see significant daily increases. Australia reported over 700 new cases yesterday, a record. In total, 3,000 new cases have been registered over the last 7 days, representing just under 20% of their total count (16,300). Hong Kong and Australia are at the peak of their crises, each reporting new daily cases and deaths in the 97th percentile.
- Concerns are mounting over a second wave in the EU. The data tells us that the weekly change in 3d moving averages are up in the UK (28%), Italy (53%), Spain (12%), Norway (77%), Switzerland (34%), Denmark (15%), Netherlands (71%), Belgium (137%), Ireland (3%), Austria (38%), Greece (23%), the Baltics (61%), Czech Republic (23%) and Poland (28%).
- In the US, 23 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded, a 1.7% daily rise that shifts the 3d moving average up 11%. The number of new daily deaths are also up 1%, and total deaths have reached 150k.
- Cyprus, Estonia, Brazil, Pakistan and Sweden have all seen their 3d moving averages rise by over 50%. Brazil recorded the second highest number of cases per 100,000 population yesterday (32), after Colombia (37). Although the 3d moving average is up in Pakistan, the weekly change is down -19%.
- Finally, new daily coronavirus cases in India have topped 50,000. The 3d moving average is in the 98th percentile, reaffirming the country’s continuing battle with the virus. India has now reported 1.53m cases, or 110 cases per 100,000 population, nationwide.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)