Global COVID-19 Tracker
- By Bilal Hafeez and Stefan Posea
In the DM world, both cases and deaths have very low increases today with no country registering increases larger than 1%.
The EM world sees slightly bigger numbers in both categories. On cases, we have Pakistan in today’s pole position with a 10% increase, which comes just after the Supreme Court ordered the government to lift some of the restrictions imposed on businesses. It is followed by Brazil, Latam’s hardest hit economy and South Africa, which both recorded 6%. India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile come next at 5%. On deaths, Pakistan saw the largest gain with an 8% increase. The only other country matching this number is South Africa, which also announced upcoming easing in restrictions. Chile comes next at 6%, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia both saw a 5% increase in deaths.
Peak Waves
Next, as usual we’re looking at peak waves in two ways. First one in terms of levels of daily cases/deaths (using percentiles of latest individual cases/deaths to avoid issues around cross country comparisons) and the other in terms of changes in daily cases/deaths (potential signals of new waves, but also noisier).
- In terms of levels, we find the following:
○ In DM, Sweden, Canada, and US remain in the peak wave quadrant, with Portugal recently joining. As of the post-peak wave, we have Japan, Greece, Ireland, France, and Australia as top contenders. Declining wave contenders are Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Spain, and Italy. There are no new wavers registered.
○In EM, the large clustering at the top end of the peak wave prevails. At its core, the cluster contains major Latam, Asian, and EMEA economies. On the other hand, the softer part of the peak wave is formed by Central European countries along with Singapore and Philippines. Israel is the only post-peak contender, while in the declining wave we have Taiwan, HK, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia.
- In terms of weekly changes, we find the following:
○ In DM, we see Greece prevailing in the peak wave quadrant. Austria also remains in the new wave quadrant, while Portugal and France remain in the post-peak quadrant. All other countries are in or inching towards the declining wave quadrant.
○In EM, the situation remains diverse, however, this time we have no post-peak country. For the second day in a row, Chile strongly leads in peak wave quadrant, followed at a distance by other Latam economies, as well as Indonesia, South Africa, and Egypt. In the new wave category, we have South Korea, UAE, Colombia, and Czech Republic. There are currently no countries in the post-peak wave while the declining wave has Malaysia, Hungary and Israel as top contenders.
Figure 1: Europe 10-day Moving Average in Cases
Figure 2: Americas – 10-day Moving Average in Cases
Figure 3: Asia – 10-day Moving Average in Cases
Figure 4: EMEA – 10-day Moving Average in Cases
Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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