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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 15-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker

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In the DM world, we see another day without changes in cases. On deaths, numbers are on the low side as well. Canada and Japan recorded a 3% increase, the latter starting to reopen most areas apart from Tokyo and Osaka.

The EM world (especially Latam) sees much bigger numbers in both categories. On cases, we have Chile in today’s pole position, which is not a surprise given the recent Santiago quarantine order. Brazil comes next with 7%, while Mexico and South Africa both recorded 6%. On deaths, South Africa leads today with a 9% increase, casting doubts on President Ramaphosa’s restrictions easing announcement. Argentina comes next at 7%, while Pakistan, Mexico and Brazil recorded 6%. The latter country is considered Latam’s hardest hit economy, suffering also from the ongoing political clashes between the pro economy reopening Bolsonaro and more socially distance oriented Joao Doria, governor of Brazil’s financial centre Sao Paulo.

 

Peak Waves

Next, as usual we’re looking at peak waves in two ways. First one in terms of levels of daily cases/deaths (using percentiles of latest individual cases/deaths to avoid issues around cross country comparisons) and the other in terms of changes in daily cases/deaths (potential signals of new waves, but also noisier).

  • In terms of levels, we find the following:
    • In DM, Sweden, Canada, and Japan deepen into the peak wave quadrant, while New Zealand and Iceland do so in the declining wave quadrant. While no country has a decisive stance in the new wave quadrant, Norway and Germany would be today’s post-peak contenders.
    • In EM, the large clustering at the top end of the peak wave prevails. At its core, the cluster contains major Latam, Asian, and EMEA economies. While yesterday they enjoyed a post-peak status, Turkey, Hungary, Czech Republic, Malaysia, and Israel are now quickly transitioning back to peak wave and we will monitor their evolution in the next days. Taiwan tops the declining wave with the lowest possible value, followed by China, Hong Kong, and Thailand. Iran maintains its new wave status.
  • In terms of weekly changes, we find the following:
    • In DM, we mark another day with no peak wave country. Sweden and Portugal maintain their new wave status, but numbers may not be decisive yet. Japan, Finland, and Norway are today’s post-peak contenders while all other countries are in the declining wave.
    • In EM, the situation is diverse as usual. Chile strongly leads today’s peak wave quadrant, followed at a distance by its Latmam peers. Israel and Malaysia maintain their presence in the post-peak quadrant. So does South Korea in the new wave one, being followed at a distance by countries like India, Colombia, Pakistan, and UAE. On the other hand, the declining wave quadrant sees Turkey and Hungary as its today’s contenders.
Figure 1: Europe 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 2: Americas – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 3: Asia – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 4: EMEA – 10-day Moving Average in Cases

 

 

Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)

 

 

Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats

 

 

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

 

Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

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